遠離塵囂 人在畫中

2010年3月8日

林行止

一、

去年十一月中旬法國南部之旅，遠離大城繁華與塵囂，享盡鄉間閑適生活節奏 （多日車程只遠遠望見三數閑散的鄉人），更有美景佳餚村釀，極盡「養眼養腹」之樂；由於遊伴無多，又得自由自在隨遇而安之逸致（筆者的經驗是，同遊人數一 旦超過八名，便得嚴格遵照事前擬好的行程），是一次難得的愉悅經驗。

這次旅行，皆因筆者讀了英國作家彼德．梅爾的《法國經驗—帶着刀叉和開 瓶器去冒險》（Peter Mayle: 《French Lessons - Adventures With Knife, Fork and Corkscrew》; Vintage Book, 2001），梅爾便是那位於八十年代末寫《山居歲月》（《A Year in Provence》）而打開國際知名度的作家，甚多產，兒童文學、飲食烹飪以至小說雜文，什麼都寫，惟筆者此前只讀過他在一九九三年出版的《培養出來的品 味》（《Acquired Tastes》），這本書，連同筆者視之為「優雅悠閑生活聖經」的《揀着擇食》（S. Marcus: 《Quest for the Best》; 1979；這二十多年來再版多次），為筆者神遊物外時反覆翻閱佳構；《揀着擇食》這個譯名似未達意，以作者除對飲食及（男性）衣着有深入研究心得之外，於 飲食器具如酒杯及刀叉以至調味品器皿等的「進化」與精美化說之甚詳，那正是引人入勝處；本書作者史丹利．馬庫斯（1905-2002），便是大名鼎鼎美國 的大型精品店尼曼．馬庫斯的第二代傳人，哈佛出身，著作不少，其《管好店子》（《Mining the Store》; 1997），筆者以為是精品店管理層「必讀書」！

梅爾的《法國經驗》，以輕鬆幽默及「男性化」筆觸對法國南部鄉間的素描，令筆者對該區神馳 已久，十月中旬在克羅地亞體驗「示範真菌」之後（事見十一月十九及二十日本欄），入林尋菌之心愈切，遂請「法國通」友人與法南導遊社聯繫，幾經周折，終於 覓得精通「洋務」（見面後方知其父為法國銀行百利保駐外人員，他在澳洲讀中學因此說英語如母語）的導遊。筆者對由有辦事能力及熱心公益的友人組團旅行極具 信心＊，以數年前無意間看日本電影《山神》（？），覺四國鄉間景物秀美脫塵如不沾人間煙火，遂請友人商約當地導遊編出旅程，招伴同遊，果然人人滿意；其後 多次外遊亦復如是，今次法南行當無例外。

二、

歐洲歷來多事，大略而言，十世紀前政教合一，天主教教士藉「神的旨意」橫行，引 起連場宗教戰爭；十一世紀後則有十字軍運動、文藝復興和啟蒙運動，一波接一波，令歐洲長期處於政經動盪之中，法國是「磨心」所在，因此留下數之不清的「歷 史遺跡」，法國南部尤多，其教堂、修道院、教徒顯聖物事、城堡、貴族莊園以至市鎮風貌，令人發思古幽情，早已成為中古世紀背景電影攝取外景勝地，我們不經 意—因為茫然無知，事前並無刻意安排—坐車漫遊，便經過山城利莫伊村（Le Villge de Limeuil），Juliette Binoche主演的《濃情朱古力》便在此取景，而令宮崎駿獲得靈感繪出《天空之城》及《哈利．波特—混血王子的背叛》中眾「魔童」起飛懸崖的洛卡馬多 （Rocamadour）山城，亦在路經途中。其時為旅遊淡季，不僅未見遊人，連商店餐廳亦休業，只有旅遊局辦事室尚有一二職員留守，雖門堪羅雀卻熱心助 人。

南部古鎮薩拉（Sarlat，一九九九年人口調查只有九千七百零七人）是我們的「據點」（以此為「根據地」乘車四遊），我們為 Hotel Dela Madeleine最後一批住客，以明年為其開業百年紀念正準備大翻新而快「暫停營業」（百年前三道菜的「全餐」售六法郎，因不知其時貨幣購買力，此價是 廉是貴無由確定）；來薩拉前並不知其在法國宗教、經濟及文化史上赫赫有名（大散文家蒙田曾在此與同性友人同居），且屬盛產黑松露菌區重鎮，二十世紀六十年 代法國著名作家、抗德英雄馬爾勞任文化部長（一九六○至一九六九年）期間，大力修建及修葺城內古蹟，如今薩拉是世上保留十三至十六世紀原貌最完整的城鎮 （世上最大規模的十三世紀古城），難怪多部電影如《The Duellists》、《Timeline》和一九七八年的《悲慘世界》（《Les Miserable》）皆在此拍攝；而部分在薩拉取景的則有《Ever After》、《A Cinderella Story》和《新三劍客》等影片！筆者一行均為電影門外漢，「影迷」來此當有賓至如歸的親切感。

＊為他人作嫁衣裳的旅遊安排者如果亦是旅 行者之一，未始不能從這種瑣碎煩雜的工作中獲得樂趣！二月十八日《紐約時報》有特稿引述四名荷蘭學者在今年一月號《生活質素研究》（《The International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies》）上發表的論文，作者們訪問了一千五百三十名荷蘭成年人（其中九百七十四名在接受調查前三十二周曾外遊）後，得出計劃旅遊即做紙上作業期 內最快樂，這種快樂來自充滿幻想和期待；但旅遊本身未必一定快樂，而旅遊後不快樂可能性上升，所以如此，皆因第一、旅遊期間可能舟車勞頓很疲累；第二、假 後必須上班，刻板的工作抵銷了旅遊時的快樂；第三、如果旅遊期間和旅伴意見相左或染病，無論旅遊時或旅遊後都不快樂。還有，筆者要加上的一項「不快樂」原 因，為旅遊期間的見聞比圖片及想像有所不如，大失所望，因此快樂不起來。

論文又指旅遊時間短長與快樂並無正比關係，調查顯示短時間旅遊較易 獲得快樂，論文因此建議「不要放長假，如有二周年假，最好分二次放假」。論文的結論是計劃及期待放假時最快樂。這令筆者多了一個請友人設計行程的藉口。

法 國西南鄉間遊食雜記．之一

Chanos: China Property Ready to Burst

Right now, for commerical real estate, there is 30 Billion sq ft under construction!!! i.e. 5 ft x 5 ft office cubicle for every man, women and child.

These are really staggering, staggering numbers… The banking system is the problem. The banking system is loaded with bad debts. Remember the state controls the banking system there, and the assets of the banking system are suspect.”

Marc Faber: Oil Prices And Monetary Policy.

"Before the rate cuts in September 2007, the oil price was at 75 dollars. As you know in the second half of 2007 and early 2008 the global demand for industrial commodities including oil was diminishing already. But the oil price still went up from 77 dollars to 147 dollars. The result of this increase in oil prices was that the total outlays for oil in the US, went from 500 billion annually to an annual rate of over 1 trillion dollars. The consumer was faced essentially with an additional tax of 500 billion USD and that probably pushed consumers over the edge in terms of consumption."

The cycle of deflation

By Comstock Partners:

We have been strong believers in the deflation theme since we have been writing these reports beginning in early 2000 (and even before). We are attaching a chart depicting the “Cycle of Deflation” which you should print out and refer to as you read this comment.

As you can see by the chart, the typical deflation starts with savings and investment which produces strong sustainable growth in the economy. However, when “greed” gets added into the equation, things sometimes change into non-sustainable growth. This is what happened in the late 1900’s when the dot com bubble mania convinced every man woman and adult child to believe that they were all supposed to be multi millionaires. They became so jealous of their neighbors who boasted about all the money they made in the market, that they also jumped into the market by buying such things as Internet Capital Group, CMGI, Iomega, JDS Uniphase, and many others of the same ilk which are now worthless.

The unraveling started taking place in 2000 and it looked to us like the American public came to their senses. We expected to have a significant recession where Americans could rebuild their balance sheets as the cycle of deflation took hold. But, instead the Fed lowered interest rates to 1% and kept them there for a year causing the public to again become jealous of their neighbors making thousands and millions of dollars on their homes. And also, believe it or not, the housing bubble brought about another bubble in the stock market. We couldn’t believe our eyes!!!

After the housing bubble burst, the stock market also collapsed causing a financial crisis “heard ’round the world”. Then, we were sure the markets and economy would fall to levels that would repair balance sheets of the household sector and allow the economy to get back to the tried and true savings and productive investment that built this great country. We still need to repair the household balance sheets that were, and still are, in the worst shape since than the Great Depression. What will it take to get to the debt repayments and debt defaults (see the last stage of The Cycle of Deflation) that has to take place before a sustained recovery can be accomplished?

We understood that the stock market was extremely oversold in March of 2009 and that there had to be a rally. But we found the 70% to 80% rally which occurred to be incredulous. The market is up so far from the lows in March now that they have discounted a V shaped recovery. We have to wonder if the public and financial institutions will ever learn.

We are now in the “competitive devaluation” part of the cycle of deflation and we should be getting close to repairing the balance sheets that are so out of line with history. But, there is a stumbling block to the normal competitive devaluations that typically take place. In the past, a country that incurred too much debt just did what they could to devalue their currency in order to export their way out of the dilemma by exporting their goods and services to their trading partners.

Now, however, it is not so simple. The Chinese have linked their currency to ours, so as we debase our currency, one of our major trading partner’s currency is also declining and China becomes the major beneficiary of the debasement of our dollar. Because of this peg (and the Euro tied to 22 countries) the typical method of debasing the currency of debt laden countries (or countries that just want to get even) have swung down in “The Cycle of Deflation” past competitive devaluations to “beggar thy neighbor” policies. We explained many times that “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies essentially go much further than just currency debasement, but actually do whatever a country has to do to protect its jobs and its economy. This means “dumping” goods and services on their trading partners (selling goods and services below cost and subsidized by the government), increasing tariffs, and anything else in its power to help the economy at their trading partners’ expense.

A perfect example of this lies in the recent accusations from China that the U.S. has been “dumping” chicken products into the Chinese market. It at first threatened imposing heavy trade duties on U.S. chicken companies, and just recently China did impose the heavy duties. They imposed duties of 64.5% on Sanderson Farms, 80.5% on Pilgrim’s Pride, and 43% on Tyson Foods which just happens to be an active investor in China. These types of “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies are an extension of the past policies they have used to support exports. But now they feel that they have to go further since China now accounts for 9% of global exports. Earlier this month China filed a compliant to the World Trade Organization against the European Union tariffs on imports of Chinese shoes. “The dollar peg of the rinminbi has put additional pressure on lower end Asian exporters. This has led to charges of unfair trade from across Asia,” said Jamie Mezl, executive vice president of the Asia Society. Even nations in Africa and the Middle East are complaining. “When we look at the reality on the ground we find that there is something akin to a Chinese invasion of the African continent,” Libyan Foreign Minister Musa Kusa said in November.

China’s exports were helped enormously by repegging their renminbi to the dollar in mid 2008. Their exports got a further boost once the dollar started falling from March of 2009 by about 10%. Now that the dollar has started up they could be close to reversing that decision. Despite all the hoopla of China trying to slow down their growth, the above policies don’t support that at all. The Chinese total debt to GDP is very difficult to quantify, but with the enormous stimulus undertaken last year ($550 billion) and government supported bank lending ($1.3 trillion), we know they are not in great shape.

America has retaliated by imposing punitive tariffs (as much as 99%) on Chinese tires and tubular steel (used in oil and gas wells). The Chinese government weighed in by condemning the U.S. tariffs as an “abuse of protectionism”.

These examples of Chinese actions illustrate how difficult it is now for debt ridden countries to simply devalue their currency in order to export their way out of the dilemma. And just think about the situation in Europe, where this problem is exacerbated by 22 fold, since they now have 22 countries tied to one currency.

The problem is not confined to America, Asia, and Africa-Look at what is taking place in Greece presently. In the past, a country like Greece that over indulged and got caught with their “hands in the cookie jar,” would just debase their currency in order to export their way out of the problem. But, now that their currency is tied to the Euro like 22 other of its trading partners, they don’t have the same option as they did in the past to bail themselves out.

In summary, due to the debt related problems many countries worldwide are struggling to help their own economies at the expense of their trading partners. In the past this has been accomplished by debasing their currencies in order to export their goods and services. Because of currency pegs and one currency used by 22 countries (Euro Zone), this means of debt relief is not as easily accomplished. The next stage of the Cycle of Deflation is the much more onerous “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies in order to support the economies of debt burdened countries. This is not good news and could have the same effect for the global economies as Smoot Hawley did (a bill in 1929 that became law in 1930 which raised the tariffs on the U.S’s. major trading partners). Therefore, the main problem of reducing the debt of major economies throughout the world is even more complicated and makes us even more convinced that the secular bear market that started in 2000 is still intact.

Four stages if the typical secular bear market and its aftermath

“We have found that this ‘start of tightening’ phase coming out of a recession (such as 1994, 2004) always leads to a period of 2-3 quarters of struggling equities, including a double-digit correction. This is now morphing into a growth scare, we believe. Our earnings growth leading indicator still suggests strong growth in 2010, but we expect 2011 EPS growth to disappoint at 10% versus consensus expectations of 24%. In addition, leading indicators are peaking out and rolling over right now. This is typically followed by struggling equity markets.”

A good place to be

This article is courtesy of Globes Online, Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on February 18, 2010

A good place to be
The so-called lost decade has not shaken legendary investor Peter Lynch’s belief that the stock market will continue to offer the best returns.

Roee Bergman18 Feb 10 17:12

The dismal returns of the past ten years have made them known as the lost decade on the US stock market, raising the question whether investment in stocks has lost its luster. Who better to answer that question than the person considered one of the best mutual fund managers in US history, Peter Lynch?

Lynch, 66, the legendary manager of the Fidelity Magellan fund, took over the running of the fund in 1977, and from then until he left the post in 1990, he managed to beat the S&P 500 Index in 11 years out of 13. Under his management, the fund yielded an exceptional annual return of 29.2%, almost double the average for the index of 15.8%. The greatness of Lynch’s achievement can be seen from the fact that even today, 20 years after he stopped managing the fund, his books “One Up on Wall Street,” “Beating the Street,” and “Learn to Earn,” are still best sellers among investors.

Today, Lynch is a research consultant at Fidelity Investments. He devotes the rest of his time to philanthropy, through a fund that he manages that awards scholarships to children from low-income families who study in Catholic schools in Boston, where he lives.

In an exclusive interview with “Globes”, Lynch gives his view of the recent crisis and its consequences for the markets, and has no hesitation is sounding optimistic about the next hundred years for the stock market.

We chose to start the interview with the obvious question did some substantial change take place in the economy and the markets because of which the past decade became the lost decade for stocks?

“The past decade is one decade out of a hundred years in which we have known the markets,” Lynch says, “We started it at an extraordinary peak in the stock market as a result of the sharp rises in 1999, but in a sense the past decade was the lost decade on the stock market mainly because stocks were overvalued.”

Should we forget what we knew about stocks? Are they no longer the best place to be?

“We had 11 recessions since World War 2, and this is the twelfth that we have experienced in the US and the biggest, without a doubt. But you have to remember that only 2-3 years ago, the market was at an all-time high. Now the question is how we will emerge from this recession, and whether we will return to the growth patterns at the rate we saw before it.”

At this point, Lynch briefly expounds his stock market theory, and explains why he thinks stocks are the best investment.

“Company profits in the US have grown at 6-7% a year, basically since World War 2. If we add to that the dividend yield, which is 2% a year, that is approximately the average annual return on stocks,” he explains.

Lynch avoids making explicit stock recommendations, but he does not stint with examples. “Look at companies like IBM, Procter & Gamble, Coca Cola, Pepsico, Walgreen, or Exxon Mobile. I estimate that they will make more money in ten years’ time than they make today, so that their share prices will rise to reflect that growth,” he argues, quickly adding the rider, “Not all of them will do that, but there is a close connection between the share’s behavior and the profits that the company produces.

“Over the past 30 years, the profits of McDonald’s have tripled and the stock market has risen threefold, and that’s true of other stocks,” Lynch continues. “However, there’s also the other side. Xerox, for example, makes less money than it did 30 years ago, and its stock is worth less than it was worth 30 years ago. Polaroid was a very exciting company a few down years ago, and it ended in insolvency. We have seen similar things happen at Eastman Kodak and General Motors.

“In general, stock market companies have succeeded in growing their profitability, and that’s the reason to buy shares,” Lynch sums up. “When you buy shares in a company, if it manages to produce profits, you are a partner in those profits. On the other hand, if you buy an IBM bond, after 20 years, the company will repay you the money and say ‘thank you very much.’ It will pay you the interest, but it will not be loyal to you, and you certainly will not enjoy the fruits of its success. That’s the big difference between bonds and stocks.”

You need 3-4 good stocks

What’s the right way to be exposed to the stock market today?

“The average person can get to know 5-10 companies very well, and once every few years he will come across an opportunity to make a good investment. In principle, you need 3-4 good companies to invest in over ten years. You don’t need 3-4 good stocks every week, if you are a private investor.

“You can’t understand and be familiar with all of the market all of the time. You have to exploit your advantage to invest in what you really understand in depth, and not in what you don’t. If you gamble and buy oil stocks one year and retail stocks the next and electronics stocks the year after that, that’s not investment. That’s just a bet.

“Another possibility of course is to invest through a mutual fund or an index fund, in the belief that the profits of US companies will rise nicely over the next 5, 10, or fifteen years, and you let someone else make the decisions for you.”

What about ETFs, that allow spreading of investment over indexes?

“I’m not a big expert on ETFs, but logic dictates that if the market falls over the next five years, the ETF will fall with it, no?”

Against that, there’s the argument that less than 15% of investment managers beat the index, and the rest lag behind it.

“At Fidelity, we had countless funds that beat the indices over periods of tens of years. In the past ten years, the market has been difficult, but I believe that in the next ten years, active fund managers will produce a better return than index funds and ETFs.”

As for other veteran investment managers in the US market, for Lynch too the latest crisis was the worst he had experienced in his years in the industry. Despite the severity of the crisis, Lynch believes that it was only an exceptional, random event, and that, in the long run, the markets will get back on track.

Asked to share his lessons from the crisis with us, Lynch pauses for a moment’s thought, and responds, “I’ll tell you the same thing I would have said 10 or 20 years ago as well. To predict the market’s direction in any given year is a completely random act. You can’t know what the markets will do in a period of six or twelve months.

“On the other hand, you do know that, over the past 40-50 years, company profits grew at good rates, and in my view they will continue that way in the coming years too. I estimate that corporate profits will double themselves every ten years. If you add to that the dividends that the companies distribute, you get an excellent return,” adds Lynch. “You have to believe that, in general, companies in the US will continue to grow. Naturally, along the way some of them will disappear and some new ones will join.

“When you participate in company profits, the most important point is whether you believe that they will be higher in another ten or twenty years or not,” Lynch insists. “If not, then perhaps it would be better for you not to be exposed to them, not in an ETF, not in an index fund, and not in a managed fund. When you look at the alternatives for investment, the choice for investors today is between a money market fund, that produces a zero return, Treasury bonds, that yield 3.8%, or some exposure to the stock market that, over time, yields double that on average.”

After leaving Magellan 20 years ago, Lynch reduced the scope of his activity in the markets. In the two decades since then, great changes have taken place in the financial industry and in the markets, one of the most prominent being the technological developments that now enable investors all over the world to be exposed to a far larger amount of information, and in real time. Lynch himself sees no difference between 20 years ago and today in the way investors need to approach the markets.

“In the course of my work at Magellan, I bought small companies that grew over the years. This is a strategy that worked, and still works today,” he says. “I bought companies whose performance was weak and that turned their businesses around. This method still works today. If you invest in companies whose assets are worth more than their market cap, you have found a great investment opportunity.”

This information spreads faster today thanks to the Internet. Doesn’t that affect the ability to act in the market?

“It mainly affects the average investor, who now has greater access to information that was once the province of professional investors. In the end, the work is the same work you have to find companies traded at below their real value, and that will grow in the coming years.”

Can your achievement at Magellan be replicated in the current market environment?

“That’s a slightly more difficult question, because to beat the market in eleven years out of thirteen is a tough assignment, but there are a few fund managers who have done it in the past and who are doing it today as well.”

Following the changes that have occurred in the markets and the “lost decade”, has it become necessary to adjust the criteria for choosing stocks for investment?

“The significance of the lost decade is very simple. Companies earn more than they did ten years ago, and they are traded at lower prices than they were then. There’s an investment opportunity here. There are companies on the market with good balance sheets and wonderful reputations, that make better profits today than ten years ago, and will continue to grow. This is an extraordinary period for investment.”

Are price earnings ratios and growth rates as relevant now as in the past?

“When you look at big companies, you see that their growth slows down eventually, because they’re too big to grow at high rates over time. On the other hand, small and medium size companies, which are generally considered riskier, grow faster over time. Therefore, there are opportunities in every kind of company. But I achieved my success thanks to a focus on companies of a small and medium order of size. I try to buy big companies only when they are at a turning point, after their position has improved following a crisis. That’s how it is in the vehicle industry, airlines, and other industries.”

Is that what you look for today companies that were hard hit by the crisis and can change direction?

“Exactly. The vehicle industry is a battered industry following the crisis, but people still continue to drive cars. The only difference is that the cars are getting older, and in the end they will have to be replaced with new ones. Something similar can be seen in the housing market. And these are just two of the biggest industries in the US, that fell to a vey low level. It’s hard to believe that they will soon get back to where they were before the crisis, but they will clearly strengthen to some extent.”

How do you identify those companies that will succeed in making the turnaround and won’t crash along the way

“That’s what is called homework. You have to do your homework.”

And what do you examine when you do that homework? The management that can turn things round?

“I look for industries that I believe will make the change, not managements that will lead the change. I’ve said in the past, that I prefer to be invested in companies that any idiot can manage, because in the end, that is what will happen. When I buy Toys “R” Us, I act on the assumption that the next decade will be very straightforward for the company, no matter who manages it. They have a simple formula, they have practically no competition, so the next decade will be easy for them.

“The second way of making money is to go for companies with poor performance now, but that have a strong balance sheet, and are likely to recover as their industry recovers. Then, all that’s left is to wait for the situation to improve. That is what’s called cyclic change.”

No need to look for stocks every day

What turns an investor into a successful stock picker?

“It takes hard work and flexibility. If you look at ten stocks, it could be that you will find one stock at an attractive price and nine at fair prices. If you look at a hundred stocks, you’ll find ten. So the more companies you examine, the more opportunities you’ll find. The second characteristic is flexibility, and here is where Fidelity’s advantage lies. It employs hundreds of analysts who examine companies from all over the world. We look at every industry, and don’t rule anything out. We don’t say that this or that industry is the best and focus just on that, but survey the entire market.”

Does that mean investors have to devote most of their time to the stock market?

“You can exploit the information that already exists in you to invest in 5-10 companies, and that’s all that is necessary. You don’t need to spend all day looking for stocks for investment. It’s enough if you invest two to three hours a month researching companies that you know and understand well in order to succeed.”

What advice would you give investors today?

“The most important organ in the body as far as the stock market is concerned is the guts, not the head. Anyone can acquire the know-how for analyzing stocks. We’ve had many recessions on average once every eighteen months we have had a 10% fall on the stock market over the past 50 years, and once every five years we have had a fall of 20-30%, which is called a bear market. Usually, this goes along with bad news, with your neighbor who lost his job, and with the value of your house that falls. The news is bad, and so you get out of the market, and when you read in the newspaper that the situation has improved, you go back in.

“You buy when you see that things are fine, and sell when you see that they are bad. But that’s not the way. You have to decide what position in shares you will be comfortable with, and to understand that even in a bear market, time is on your side. What the market will do for a period of a year ahead is random. If you need the money for your child for college or for a wedding in a year’s time, it’s important that you should know that the market will be random over that year. But if you’re looking at an investment range of 10 or 20 years, company profits will be on your side, and stock prices will be higher.

“You have to understand what you’re doing and recognize the fact that things can go wrong. Recessions happen, and right at the point that things seem gloomiest, people withdraw their money from the market, and just then the market start to climb. Look at the latest rally that we have had since March. The economy still isn’t sufficiently stable. We have an unemployment rate higher than 10%, and the recovery in many areas of the economy is fragile, but we had an impressive rally nevertheless. The stock market looks to the future and not to the past. The tendency of people to run when the situation is bad and go in only when it’s good is a good formula for losing money.

“You have to look in the mirror and ask yourself, ‘What will I do if the stock market falls 10% over the coming year? Will I sell everything?’ If your answer is positive, maybe it would be better for you to sell today. The stock exchange is a good place to be. In fact, it was the best place to be in the last 100 years, even if it wasn’t like that in the past decade.”

And what about the next 100 years?

“I think it will be a good place to be in the 10, 20, and even 100 years to come.”

牛市因為悲觀情緒而誕生因為疑慮交加而成長

有中國“私募教父”之稱的趙丹陽每年都會發布一封致投資者的信，其核心內容是對過去一年投資成績的總結，以及他對新一年市場走勢的看法。 2010年趙丹陽認為滬指會在2400點到4000點的空間裡運行，他表示2010年，他們的任務就是要尋找中國在經濟結構調整中，在未來十到二十年能夠代表中國參與全球競爭的企業。

趙丹陽因為成功預見了2008年的大熊市備受業界推崇，後來又因和巴菲特共進午餐而名聲大噪。在2010年一封致投資者的信中，趙丹陽表示：“理智告訴我們，今天的行情已不同於2006和2007，也不會出現2008和2009，它絕不會再次以一種普遍大幅上漲和普遍大幅下跌的形態來完成，行情的發展會領先宏觀經濟數據，行業的發展會領先深滬指數，公司的股價會提前反映以上兩方面，在2400到4000點的空間裡，會有股票繼續上漲，會有股票繼續下跌。”

趙丹陽認為2010年將是各國緩步提升利率，關注控制全球高通脹的時期，全球經濟將進入一段較高通脹帶來的高成長時期；尤其是進入二十一世紀後，清潔能源和環保需求將改變過去幾十年的經濟增長模式，他們期待著這種勢在必行的變化帶給證券投資領域主導趨勢的演變。在挑選股票上，趙丹陽建議投資者選擇價值股。趙丹陽在信中表示：“牛市因為悲觀情緒而誕生，因為疑慮交加而成長，因為樂觀情緒而成熟，因為亢奮狂喜而死亡。極度悲觀瀰漫時，正是買入的最好良機；而極度樂觀洋溢時，正是賣出的最好良機。市場極度低迷之時，別浪費時間操心你的頭寸萎縮或者虧損加大。不要和市場上其他人一樣只知防禦，相反的，你應該起而攻擊，尋找紛紛中箭落馬的價值股。”


======================

趙丹陽2010年致投資者的一封信

親愛的投資者：

您好！

2009年在充滿希望和超過想像的發展中過去了，在此 信託公司發行準備中的信託計劃的管理團隊向全體投資者祝福：新年快樂！身體健康！萬事如意！

08年我們的投資回報率為4%，09年我們的信託基金 本金淨值為1.51，公司管理賬戶淨值增漲超過100%，同期上證指數上漲50%，深指數上漲50%。跑贏大勢，讓我們對我們一直堅持的投資理念增添了很多 信心，當然和市場中基金經理出身的優秀私募基金管理人相比較，我們的投資研究團隊仍需要繼續學習和努力。

回到股市，上證綜指從07年最高位6124點下跌到最 低位1664點，下跌了72%，09年初時我們斷言將是出現大幅度恢復性上漲的一年，這一觀點得到了市場的印證。從歷史上看，主流市場在兩年的時間裡產生如此巨大的震 幅仍屬罕見。就今天的市場而言，股市已經恢復理性，股市未來走勢將 取決於對未來經濟的預期和上市公司價值的理性回歸，我們將看到在市場上回歸主流的價值投資體系和深入研究精神的重建。

2010年將是各國緩步提升利率，關注控制全球高通脹 的時期，全球經濟將進入了一段較高通脹帶來的高成長時期；尤其是進入二十一世紀後，清潔能源和環保需求將改變過去幾十年的經濟增長模式，我們期待著這種勢在必行的 變化帶給證券投資領域主導趨勢的演變。

2000年美國經濟進入頂峰，互聯網的泡沫破裂使美國 進入衰退期。格林斯潘為了挽救美國經濟，01年9.11後又再次大 幅降息，使03年美國利率降至45 年最低點，在1%的位置停留了一年半，造成了美國的房地產泡沫，埋下了次債風波的種子。美國今天的實質問題是，過去20年大量的製造業和服務 業轉移至中國、印度，互聯網和通訊泡沫過後，美國的創新又未跟上來，暫時沒有形成大的新興產業，而房地產和金融只能在低利率下暫時繁榮，不能作為主導產業長久支撐整 個國家。今天，美國政府和家庭的資產負債表上大都是負債過多， 需要“去槓桿化”削減負債率；更重要的是，產業的空洞化造成了企業和家庭的經常性損益受到破壞。如果說金融風暴是資產負債表的修正，那消費衰退就是企 業和家庭損益表的修正。除非美國短期內形成一個總量很大的新興產業，否則這種 修正將是一個漫長的過程。回頭看，格林斯潘只是運氣不好，如果不是美國近年的創 新沒有跟上，世界將是另外一個演變過程。

中國2001年加入WTO後生產力得到了極大的釋放， 互聯網通訊技術的普及使中國在承接全球製造業轉移過程中受益匪淺。由於人民幣和美元實質的類掛鉤形態[1]，在出口產業 佔GDP比例越來越高時，按“蒙代爾三角”理論[2]，中國央行操作的困難度越來越大。

2005年後，人民幣升值的預期逐漸變成了全球共識， 有日本的歷史為鑑，加上美元的低利率和貶值壓力，驅使全球資本都想進入中國，分享中國成長。伴隨著出口的快速增長，更多的表現是外匯儲備的暴漲。這麼多貨幣進入中國後，主要的宣洩口就是房地產和股 市，一個完美的泡沫形態在中國形成。如果上述原因帶來貨幣數量的增加，那奧運會催生的民族 自信心和自豪感帶來的就是貨幣乘數形成，兩者相乘的結果就是人類的瘋狂。歷史總是驚人的相似，中國今天的痛楚是在走向市場化經 濟過程中必修的一課，就像97後大多數香港人不再會過度透支買樓買股。正如前日本央行行長所說，回頭看1985-1989年 的日本經濟泡沫，即使重新演繹，也很難完全避免。

相比美國，中國的基本面要好很多，首先是政府和家庭負 債率不高，尤其是家庭部分，高儲蓄率使資產負債表上有大量現金，冬天來臨之時有現金可以過冬。更重要的是，中國仍舊是全球製造業最有競爭力的地區， 也就是說中國未來的損益表仍然是最堅挺的。

回到A股和H股，去年我們相信2009年中國股市將會 形成重要的底部。今年2010年，我們今天的任務就是要尋找中國在經濟 結構調整中，在未來十到二十年能夠代表中國參與全球競爭的企業，投資的本質就是分配資本，我們把資本分配給最有核心競爭力、最有效率的企業，從而促進社會的發展。大自然的春夏秋冬息息相生，每一輪嚴酷的寒冬將會淘汰 那些內在體質不健康、不適合生存的物種，每一棵倒下的大樹周圍將會生出更多強盛的新苗——自然選擇（Natural Selection）是推動自然界和社會進步的永恆動力。誰是中國未來的沃爾瑪、豐田、微軟、寶潔……彼得林奇 一生尋找到很多Tenbaggers[3]，誰會是我們未來可以賺十倍的公司呢？

每個人的一生中，總會有若干次重大的機遇和挑戰，在這 些重要的轉折關頭，如何處理和麵對將會對其一生產生決定性的影響，我們一起來分享約翰•鄧普頓爵士的投資心得。

牛市因為悲觀情緒而誕生，因為疑慮交加而成長，因為樂 觀情緒而成熟，因為亢奮狂喜而死亡。極度悲觀瀰漫時，正是買入的最好良機；而極度樂觀洋溢 時，正是賣出的最好良機。市場極度低迷之時，別浪費時間操心你的頭寸萎縮或者虧 損加大。不要和市場上其他人一樣只知防禦，相反地，你應該起而 攻擊，尋找紛紛中箭落馬的價值股。

理智告訴我們，今天的行情已不同於2006和 2007，也不會出現2008和2009，它絕不會再次以一種普遍大幅上漲和普遍大幅下跌的形態來完成，行情的發展會領先宏觀經濟數據，行業的發展會領先深滬指數，公司的股價會提前反映以 上兩方面，在2400到4000點的空間裡，會有股票繼續上漲，會有股票繼續下跌，在大家都肯定了清潔能源，環保，醫藥,基建，鐵路和機電設備和消費升級概念發展確定 性，再加上高利差時代金融業的瘋狂，我們的公司研究只要跟上這樣的節拍。尋找行業中最好的公司作為投資對象，抓緊公司變化從量 變到質變的拐點，在穩定的行情中發揮公司研究的優越性是我們理應擅長的投資方法。

2008年我們的信託計劃成立前夕，我和好幾個朋友探 討了這樣的問題：時間的玫瑰什麼時候才會開放，價值投資的困惑，什麼樣的公司值得長期擁有，什麼樣的公司只能階段性持有；自我的恐懼和貪婪，宏觀經濟和通貨膨脹。到2008年底，我們已經找到了大部分答案，對於其他 仍然困惑的部分，我們期待09年能和朋友們共同探討和求證，我們會用一生的時間去完善我們的投資理論體系。

2009年，我們用實踐證明了我們方法，也有了新的困 惑，做好的投資人，是要用一生去努力的事情，我們仍舊堅信10年我們將戰勝大盤，跑贏市場。

投資興邦，誠信雙贏

兩成持黃金，五成持地產

每逢過年，都有投資者去寺廟求籤，希望上天指點迷津，來年財路亨通。我從來不相信求籤會對投資帶來甚麼幫助，所以每年當朋友相約去上香拜佛時，我寧願留在家裡，思考一個投資者最值得去思考的問題——來年宏觀的經濟環境將會是走向通縮，還是走向通脹？只要在這個問題上得到正確的答案，來年的投資一定順利很多。

如 果預期宏觀經濟會走向通縮，就應該盡量持現金算了，因為通縮會導致資產價格下滑，有現金在手，不愁將來買不到廉價資產。相反，如果預期宏觀經濟會出現通 脹，那就要增加手上的投資，因為樓價與股價都會因通脹而上升；手頭現金即使有高息，也抵銷不了購買力的蒸發。然而，要預期未來走向通縮還是通脹，並不如想 像中那麼容易。

按 正道去推論，世界需出現一段很長的通縮期，才足以糾正前人先使未來錢的所造成的惡果。不少先進國家，包括美國，過去都是靠借債度日，現在已經債台高築，他 們現在最應該做的，是勒緊褲頭，減少支出，儲錢還債。但這樣一來，社會的整體需求就會下降，經濟活動自然跟著萎縮，貨幣流通亦會跟著減少，亦即是說會通 縮。

然而，在民主制度下，執政黨是很難為了國家的長遠利益，而不顧選民的短期取向的。政府一說要削減開支，選民就會不滿，社會就會有動亂；希臘的情況就是這樣。這樣，反對黨亦乘機會蠢蠢欲動，令執政黨很難擇善固執。

相 反，對債務國而言，他們寧願看到通脹而不是通縮。因為通脹會令銀紙貶值，那他們就可以用不再那麼值錢的錢，去還過去欠下來的債。此之所以，大部分政府仍在 行低息政策，藉此把銀行裡的存款趕出市場加快流轉。此外，他們仍會不斷舉債，以新債還舊債。在這種情況下，出現通脹已經在所難免。

因此，我估計在未來幾年裡，通脹應該是主流，但間中會有反覆。因 為每隔一段時間，債務國就會出來擺擺姿態，告訴債權國他們是有心還錢的，他們已在部署，縮減開支，使將來財政出現盈餘。奧巴馬與希臘政府最近就多番強調這 一點。這時，市場又會出現通縮的擔憂，資產價格就會出現調整。不過這樣的日子不會長，通脹很快又會變成人們的主要憂慮。

由於我認為未來會以通脹為主導，因此我打算在投資上採取較為進取的策略，我打算只持有生活所需的現金算了，其他的都拿來投資，兩成持黃金，五成持地產。那一類升快了，超出既定的比例，我就會減持，把套回來錢，押在比例不足的資產上。我會把每一次加息，視作通脹已沒法避免的訊號。我會趁大市調整，而增持資產；而不會因債務國的某些虛假的姿態，而嚇至增持現金。

(轉載自2010年2月23日am730C觀點)

索羅斯：中國經濟冷卻一些我才可能會再次樂觀

索羅斯：中國經濟冷卻一些我才可能會再次樂觀

“如果中國經濟冷卻一些，我才可能會變得再次樂觀”

2月3日傍晚，香港大學陸佑堂人頭攢動，金融界學界名人云集，只為一睹“大鱷歸來”。曾在亞洲金融風暴中與港府鏖戰的對沖基金界教父級人物喬治·索羅斯(George
相關公司股票走勢

* 中國銀行4.11-0.02-0.48%
* 新世紀 39.19-1.06-2.63%

Soros)再度訪港，光環仍不減當年。

12年輪迴之後，全球經濟已陷入一場更大的危機。儘管索羅斯在演講中笑稱“已經退休”，無心過問投資事宜，但其舉手投足仍被市場賦予了風向標的意義。事實上，在金融危機后索羅斯的每次發言，市場無不側耳傾聽。索羅斯宣稱退休不止一次，最近一次是在本世紀初互聯網泡沫高潮期。但在2007年美國次貸危機襲來之際，索羅斯乘勢而出，大舉做空美國次貸相關證券，一舉斬獲數十億美元純利，是本次危機以來最成功的投資者之一。索羅斯所謂“退休”，盡人皆知老驥伏櫪。

去年10月，在中歐國際工商學院演講時索羅斯稱，在國際經濟大變局下，中國政府主導的模式較美國的國際資本主義模式更具效率，並且成為危機中最大的贏家。但時過境遷，索羅斯已不再無保留地樂觀。他坦言中國存在經濟過熱、通脹等現象，而對人民幣，則再次呼籲升值，以將中國的通脹轉嫁出去。

對於資產泡沫，索羅斯給出的則是一個對沖基金式的回答，“當看到資產有泡沫現象時，可以趁機買貨，因為這是市場大方向，不算非理性行為，但當泡沫成熟時，就要及時沽貨獲利。”

2月4日清晨，在其下榻的港島香格里拉酒店56樓，索羅斯接受了本刊記者的專訪，暢談其對全球及中國經濟、資本市場的看法。年近80歲的索羅斯，身著淺灰色毛衣、米色休閒褲，儘管精神依然健碩，但仍難與動如脫兔的資本大鱷聯繫起來。

　　警惕“硬著陸”

《新世紀》：你在數天前指出，全球資產泡沫正在形成。考慮到去年初至今，不少游資流入中國，以及中國持續推出寬鬆貨幣政策和經濟刺激方案，你認為中國是否已經出現了資產泡沫？

索羅斯：毫無疑問，中國銀行業的放貸是過度的，中國政府已經採取適當的措施對其進行了限制，這勢必對股市產生影響。除非宏觀調控政策達到了令經濟降溫的效果，否則股市將一直受到相關壓制。

　　至於泡沫則很難判斷。人們總是認為泡沫無處不在。刺激政策毫無疑問已經推高了資產價格，但要判斷泡沫存在與否，很大程度上要取決於未來經濟的走向是“硬著陸”抑或“軟著陸”。如果經濟實現了“軟著陸”，就說明目前沒有泡沫，反之亦然。所以，如果想知道現在是否存在泡沫，只有耐心等待。

《新世紀》：那麼目前的調控措施，將會帶來經濟“硬著陸”還是“軟著陸”？

　　索羅斯：這是個複雜的問題。首先，在政府剛開始限制信貸的時候，信貸需求反而會出現井噴。出於對未來繼續收緊的預期，人們會爭先恐後，貸到多少是多少。因此，信貸緊縮政策需要一段時間才能真正使經濟降溫。這段時間越長，經濟“硬著陸”的風險就越大。

如果經濟在明年以前持續加速增長，供給就會劇烈放大，需求卻相對收縮，引起更加嚴重的產能過剩問題，繼而導致經濟“硬著陸”。所以，我認為政府當前盡力控制信貸的舉措是警覺有加的。

《新世紀》：中國銀行業2009年新增貸款10萬億元，今年政府公開表示約為7.5萬億元。接下來會否導致過熱、通脹以及更加激烈的緊縮政策？中長期而言，你擔心中國銀行體系的不良貸款風險嗎？

索羅斯：經濟過熱、通脹等現象正在中國發生，而且這種現象將會持續，直到經濟降溫為止。信貸爆炸在未來的某一時候注定會產生壞賬，但同樣，這主要取決於經濟走向“硬著陸”還是“軟著陸”。

《新世紀》：最近一段時間以來，不少國際投資者對中國的態度都發生了微調，由此前的極度樂觀或樂觀，轉向“中性”或“稍微謹慎”。你對中國的態度現在是怎樣的？

索羅斯：我是保持非常謹慎(very cautious)的態度。如果中國經濟冷卻一些，我才可能變得再次樂觀。

《新世紀》：“退出政策”是近來全球投資界最關注的話題。中國人民銀行近期提高了銀行法定存款準備金率，這項舉措較市場預期為早，你如何評價這項政策，這是否意味著“緊縮”週期的開始？

索羅斯：政府提高法定存款準備金率是非常有力之舉，我甚至可以說，中國當局比市場反應還機警。

《新世紀》：中國的房地產價格在去年底急劇上升，政府近期也在出台收緊的措施。但也有人認為，中國的房地產價格很難控制，這主要是由於內地正在進行的城鎮化、國際資本的投資需求以及正在崛起的中產階級的消費升級需求所致。你對中國房地產中長期的看法如何？

索羅斯：住宅房地產市場增長過快，一定是周期性的，因此會有調整空間。不過中長期可能仍保持快速增長。

《新世紀》：你曾多次呼籲人民幣升值，這樣不僅可以解決全球貿易不平衡的問題，而且可以幫助解決中國的通脹問題。但是，如果人民幣單邊升值，政府如何處理“熱錢”流入問題？

索羅斯：無論從國內抑或國際角度分析，我認為中國政府如果允許人民幣升值，都將是明智之舉。

如何避免“熱錢”流入是一個大問題。其中一種解決方式是一次性升值，然後再引入爬行區間(Crawling Band)浮動匯率制度。這會使得人民幣既有上升也有下降可能，將可藉此打擊投機。

不過，我判斷中國政府不大可能這麼做，因為他們非常謹慎，不喜歡突然的變化。

　　美國堪憂

《新世紀》：你如何看待目前的全球經濟復甦狀況，今年會有經濟二次探底的風險嗎？

索羅斯：復甦如預期般是疲弱的。但是現在越來越多的人擔心負債率的上升，這在一定程度上抵消了刺激政策的效果，增加了二次探底的威脅，而對主權債務的憂慮，也加重了這一預期。

《新世紀》：在後危機時代，美國應該如何吸引資本流入，以彌補經常項目的赤字？長期而言，美國應該如何解決財赤問題？

索羅斯：目前，美國的經常性賬戶赤字正在減少，並且在可預見的將來將持續減少。這種變化是好現象，但同時也伴隨著痛苦。如果美元兌人民幣的匯率維持不變，要實現減少赤字的目標將是相當困難的。

《新世紀》：美聯儲今年會加息嗎？如果美國持續低息政策，中國及其他國家如何應對？

索羅斯：我認為美聯儲今年不會加息，由於身負巨額財政赤字，美國政府似乎很難繼續再維持財政刺激方案，刺激性的貨幣政策將持續一段時間。

如果中國政府允許人民幣升值，從而將通脹輸出給美國，那麼可能美聯儲會考慮加息，從中國的角度看，這對中國來說也是一種保持經濟健康發展的舉措。

不過，美國政府還會持續量化寬鬆政策，這使得中國政府很難採取加息的辦法，這也是中國政府為何選擇提高銀行法定準備金率，而不選擇加息回收流動性的原因。

　　中美新秩序

《新世紀》：在經濟危機之後，你認為全球主要經濟體已經採取足夠的措施以解決世界經濟的基本面問題了嗎，比如國際不平衡問題？

　　索羅斯：沒有。國際不平衡的問題正在持續擴大。在這樣的背景下，中國巨大的經常性賬戶盈餘就顯得非常顯眼，這就是為什麼人民幣升值的壓力始終存在。目前，修正這種不平衡的進程尚未開始。

我相信，全球經濟的複蘇與中國的持續繁榮，都將建立在更好的國際合作之上，尤其是中美之間的合作。然而，中美關係在最近卻出現了反方向發展的趨勢，我對此非常憂慮。

《新世紀》：在你看來，目前全球對氣候變化及綠色能源的關注，是否可以成為全球新的驅動力？這有內在驅動還是一場新的遊戲？

索羅斯：新能源無疑將成為世界經濟新的增長點，但其前提是國際社會達成共識，必須為碳排放指標定價。如果國際社會沒能對此形成價格上的共識，誰會來為相關領域的投資埋單呢？

《新世紀》：你認為目前監管制度改革會否影響資本流入，這會否是一種隱晦的金融保護主義？在你看來，金融監管改革最重要是哪一部分的革新？

索羅斯：我最近提出了一項關於使用特別提款權的提案，用以扶持新能源領域的投資。這項提案已經得到了IMF的支持。我希望中國也能對此施以援手。 IMF總裁斯特勞斯-卡恩已經表示將在近期正式提出這一提案。

如果國際社會不能對國際監管機制達成共識，現有的多邊體制將岌岌可危，從而對全球經濟造成不良影響。在我最近的一次演講中，我已經提出瞭如何建立全球監管體制的指導性原則(這包括監管機構要防止泡沫變大、監督金融機構的產品甚至指令性放貸等一系列加強監管的措施——編者註)。

《新世紀》：近年來越來越多的人開始談論人民幣國際化的問題，你如何看待中國政府對於人民幣國際化的態度？如何做到國際化？

索羅斯：中國當局對資本賬戶的放開，很可能是緩慢的。我樂見國際金融體系改革以達成新的國際協議，這其中也包括貨幣體系，一個新的布雷頓森林體係可能因此而誕生，人民幣成為國際貨幣，這是我們期待看到的。

進一步說，過去的全球化理論認為市場可以自我管理。這是錯誤的。特別是當英美放鬆監管時，其他國家也不得不如此操作，以防止資本流失到其他國家。

過去的貨幣合作機制，尤其是IMF投票權的分配已經過時了。現在，我們面臨的挑戰是建立一個新的布雷頓森林體系，重塑全球金融系統。為了實現這個目標，中美兩國的合作是不可或缺的。這兩者將在新體系中發揮領導作用，如果中美不能達成共識，那麼所謂新體係就是無稽之談。

吃得少，活得長

一百一十二歲了，每天吃什麼補品？什麼山珍海味？

一百一十二歲的許哲這樣說：「我
的飲食很簡單，早上喝一杯牛奶，中午吃一些青菜和水果，有時青菜用 水燙過，不煮
不炒，不加油鹽，切了就吃。生吃能完全保持蔬菜的養份，水煮過養份就少了一半。晚
餐喝一杯酸奶（乳酪），若不餓就不吃。」吃得簡單，吃得少， 反而健康，反而長
壽。這是英國科學家的研究結果。科學家用兩隻年齡一樣的猴子做實驗，一隻隨便牠
吃，想吃多少便吃多少，另一隻則有嚴格的卡路里控制，二十 年後，一隻變成老態龍
鍾的肥馬餾，另一隻則眼神銳利，精神抖擻，腰板挺直。實驗證明，如果比正常食量少
吃三分之一，明顯老得慢，身體保持了活力，有助於減 緩大腦衰老。

許哲的簡單飲食還可以再斟酌一下。美國的約翰霍普金斯大學醫院連續十七年被列為全
美最佳醫院，它說：牛奶會在腸胃道產生黏液，可以促生癌細胞。但未加糖的豆漿可以
餓死癌細胞。

比 正常食量吃少三分之一，可以理解為：本來的一日三餐變成一日兩餐，早餐一定要
吃飽，午餐要吃好，晚餐吃些粥吃些堅果便夠了。這個模式，我自己已經實行了兩 個
月，開始的時候有點困難，到了後來成了習慣，叫我吃也吃不下。每天的飲食以穀類為
主，加上菜與水果，肉可以不吃便不吃，或者只喝肉湯，吃免治肉碎之類。 這樣的飲
食，想不瘦十多廿磅也難。

港股進入橫行悶局

2010年2月17日

信報研究部

投 資者經常聽到財經評論員提及股市超買或超賣，而目前市場普遍利用恒指的RSI或保歷加通道等技術指標來量度股市有否超買／超賣，但這指標只能量度恒指的超 買／超賣情況，未必能反映整體市況；今天我們透過統計港股市場所有股票偏離50天線的超買／超賣比例，與讀者討論目前港股市況。

我 們首先計算每一隻港股的50天線及其相應的一個標準差，再統計整個港股市場股價高於50天線一個標準差的比例（超買比例）及低於一個標準差的比例（超賣比 例）。縱觀過去十五年的數據，如果超買比例升穿50%並掉頭向下，代表藍籌公司的恒指在往後的一至二個月通常會向下調整，即使沒有調整，恒指亦橫行一段時 間來消化超買情況；相反，如果超賣比例超過50%並且掉頭回落，通常代表一個買入時機。

超買比例跌 減持股票

我們從1995年開始討論。由1995年年初至1997年年尾，超買比例多於50%有五次【圖一】。從圖中可見，每一次超買比例升至50%以上並回 落，除1997年回歸前二個月以外，其他情況恒指不是橫行便是下跌。超賣比例於此時段有二次升穿50%並回落，一次是1995年11月，另一次是1997 年10月。從圖中可見兩次等侍超賣比例由高位轉向時買入值博率均高，因隨後二至三個月恒指上升約2000點。另外，投資者可以結合其他因素以判斷超買／超 賣指標的有效性。1997年香港回歸時，當時人人樂觀，成交量狂增，升幅加快，就應當減持股票 ，加上港股超買比例於50%水平上掉頭回落，應盡量把股票變成現金 。

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接 着我們討論1997年至1999年年尾的市況【圖二】。自從超買比例於1997年8月由60%以上回落，讀者可見超賣比例於1997年10月升逾90%。 雖然投資者或可於此時博反彈，但須留意超賣比例升至接近90%，確認熊市第一隻腳，進入「有反彈無上升」格局。從過去經驗可知，超賣比例升至遠超50%通 常接二連三，故此在此階段只能捉熊腳。

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1998 年8月股市跌破7000點，但超賣比例比前高點低近二十個百分點，與恒指出現背馳；加上港府入市，當時入市有值博率。1998年11月超買比例升至 60%，比前高位升了超過三十個百分點，確認升市。當然，1999年7月恒指浪頂比前一浪頂為高，但超買比例之頂卻比前一頂為低，投資者的警覺應該開始提 高。

科網股爆煲早有預示

繼1999年7月超買比例升至超過50%後，2000年2月此比例再次到達相同水平。當時TMT股熱潮到達頂峰，美國納斯特綜合指數亦從1999年 10月的3000點以下升至2000年3月的5000點水平，五個月升逾六成。當時有美國上市公司，花費現金速度愈快則估值愈高，可見投資情緒接近瘋狂。

超買比例於2000年2月見頂【圖三】，3月已跌至20%以下，明顯與恒指走勢背馳，發出沽貨訊號。同年4月及10月超賣比例分別升至六成及近八 成，預示熊腳己出現，再次進入「有反彈無上升」格局。直至2003年4月恒指因沙士下挫，但超賣比例之頂卻低於自2002年以來所有超賣比例之頂，顯示投 資港股值博率增加。同年6月超買比例升至50%以上並每頂遞增，升市有動力支持，入市風險減低。

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自 2003年到2007年的港股升市【圖四】，其中2004年5月港股超賣比例曾升至七成以上，當時或預示跌市重臨， 但從2003年年尾到2005年年尾恒指只是橫行，故此投資者即使因看見2004年5月的超賣訊號而誤以為熊市來臨，損失亦不會大。假如投資者持續在超賣 比例從50%以上回落時入市，2006年捕捉波幅，相信亦略有斬獲。直至2007年2月及6月超買比例升至六成水平，港股升市獲得確認。後來2007年8 月港股因為美國次按問題遭恐慌性拋售，超賣比例升至七成，為當時兩年多的新高。

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當然，持貨者不會於大市超賣時沽出，但須更加謹慎留意後市的變化。後來內地傳出港股直通車，刺激恒指於二個月內升50%，但恒指於高位時超買比例只有三成，明顯與恒指的上升走勢背馳；加上投資情緒極度樂觀，兩者結合為投資者發出一個較為清晰的出貨訊號。

2007年恒指見頂後，相信讀者必定記憶猶新，超賣比例多次處於五成以上【圖五】，而超買比例最多只能處於約30%，根據訊號博反彈的投資者所承受 的風險不少。港股超買比例於2009年1月升至五成以上，為一年半以來新高，提示投資者大市已見底。3月初滙控（005）曾跌至33元，超賣比例也只升至 44%，恒指形成雙底，但超賣股份比例卻大幅減少， 即出現背馳。一個月後超買比例升逾五成，於6月初時更升至八成以上，確認升市再臨。 恒指於去年11月接近23000點水平，但超買比例卻與之背馳，動力減弱。

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宜同時參考其他指標

近日港股跌市，超賣比例升至四成多，與去年3月恒指見底時水平相若。超買及超賣比例暫時未有大突破，情況與2005年年初美元反彈期相若（美元剛巧正在反彈），當時港股出現橫行悶局。

文中超買／超賣比例使用50天線及其一個標準差作為參數，前者代表10周趨勢，而後者代表股價偏離前者的幅度。當然，這兩個參數不一定是最有效的參 數，但有興趣的讀者或可用其他參數改良。超買／超賣比例只是其中一個技術指標，投資者宜同時參考其他指標以互相印證，並結合當時基本因素同時分析。

分析員：吳子健

Montier: Ten Lessons Not Learnt

baddream -

新春吉凶談

趨吉避凶是人之常情，但許多朋友忽略一點，過分的「趨吉避凶」，本已呈「凶」了。
為什麼違反常態？違反常態內藏大凶。這是筆者在虎年給本欄讀者的一點建議。

舉個例，你去澳門賭錢贏七次，輸三次已是大吉。如果你要求次次贏，想在賭桌上發
達，包你輸清光。因為你的心態呈「大凶」。

常 態者，規律也。違反規律，自然大凶。筆者曾與一位猶太學者探討過，為何猶太民
族在歷史上多次被屠殺（大凶）？猶太人聰明、團結、能幹、有魄力，在歷史上與 其
他民族競爭，往往九次都打贏，但第十次，或者第十一次就輸光。第二次世界大戰在歐
洲，只是最近一次一九四八年以色列立國，過往六十年，對阿拉伯人又是次 次勝利。
以色列有原子彈，在美國，猶太人的控制力和影響力第一。但未必不是一個循環，一旦
出現反覆，恐怕以色列是全球危機（大凶）的民族，這位猶太朋友 說，以色列一旦戰
敗，會滅國，確是這樣。

中國哲學中，「留有餘地」就有「趨吉避凶」的內涵，因為任何事物當百分之百「吉」
的時候，就會轉化為「凶」，就如月亮一過十五，最圓的一剎那，就開始缺了。

「亢 龍有悔」，連皇帝也只是「九五」之尊，不到最上層。毛澤東文革捧到上天，也
走下講壇，為什麼說「財不可發盡，福不可享盡，權不可使盡」。「盡」者，「完」
也，你走到盡，就是你「玩完」。可惜太多成功者沒有這智慧，結果走向反面。曾國藩
的書齋叫「求缺齋」，人家求「完美」，他求「缺憾」。太平天國攻陷南京， 留「西
門」給守軍逃走。

一九四九年，解放軍到羅湖、拱北為止，留下香港、澳門。何謂吉？大方向不錯就是
吉。大方向錯了，就是凶。

挫折與順道，處之泰然，就吉；小事斤斤計較為凶。過於執着，為大凶，包括對「趨吉
避凶」，也要隨緣，本身就「趨吉」。

Gold Bubble? What?

It took John Paulson months to convince investors that housing would crumble.

Now it's taking him awhile to get them excited about gold, his latest passion.

When Mr. Paulson's Paulson & Co. late last year announced it was starting a hedge fund to make a big gold bet, many on Wall Street expected investors to line up. Paulson & Co. scored about $20 billion in profits in 2007 and 2008 wagering against subprime mortgages and financial companies. It then bought financial shares last year to add more gains.

Some gold traders expected Mr. Paulson's new fund, launched Jan. 1, to raise billions of dollars and even help push gold higher when it started buying this year.

That hasn't happened. Despite months of investor meetings, Mr. Paulson has raised $90 million or so for his new gold fund, according to people close to the matter. Even the $250 million that Mr. Paulson himself placed in the fund hasn't persuaded many investors to get on board.

The fund, despite gains this month that bucked a selloff for gold, has lost about 10% since it was launched, investors say. That's making it that much harder for Mr. Paulson to convince clients.

"I am a long-term believer in inflation, but I feel the weakness in the economy in the short run will trump the longer-term story" for gold, says Christopher Zook, who at CAZ Investments LP invests about $150 million in hedge funds.

Mr. Zook considered but decided not to invest in the gold fund for now. "It's purely my negative view on gold in the short run," he said. "I just am waiting for hopefully a better entry point."

The disappointing response may be a sign that investors are becoming more cautious about the yellow metal, which has declined about 1.7% this year, though it has risen this week.

Shares of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., one of Paulson & Co.'s biggest gold-mining bets, have fallen to about $37 from nearly $47 in early December.

Mr. Paulson has told his investors he expects his new fund to outperform gold prices as they rise. That suggests it also could do worse than the market if the dollar continues to rally, pushing gold down further.

Bloomberg News

Some gold traders expected John Paulson's new fund to raise billions of dollars and even help push gold higher when it started buying this year. That hasn't happened. Despite months of investor meetings, Mr. Paulson has raised $90 million or so for his new gold fund, according to people close to the matter

Some investors have noted that exchange-traded funds that use leverage, or borrowed money, to bet on gold might be able to match Mr. Paulson's fund. By contrast, it was almost impossible for many investors to replicate the complicated derivative moves that Paulson & Co. undertook with its credit funds in 2007 to bet against subprime mortgages.

Also, some Paulson & Co. investors may have had their fill of gold. The firm already has about 10% of its holdings in gold-related investments apart from the new fund.

It's too early to count Mr. Paulson out.

Paulson & Co. raised just $147 million for its first credit fund in the spring of 2006, a time when housing was raging. Money soon was rolling into the fund, however, and his gains turned enormous in 2007.

Some investors are asking why they should pay Mr. Paulson to invest in gold, as he doesn't have years of commodity experience. But some said the same thing about his housing investments before they turned into winners.

Mr. Paulson has told investors that his gold strategy is a long-term one that will reap rewards over the next few years as the value of leading currencies drop. Recent weakness in gold prices could enable Mr. Paulson to buy up gold miners and derivatives at lower prices. That would make it easier for him to rack up gains later on.